10 million customers of India probably contribute to nearly 75% of GMV across eCommerce, food delivery and quick commerce.

A close, highly visible association with extremely wealth person seldom secures election victories in a democracy, but when it does, it has the potential to redefine the political landscape.

A highly entertaining and exhilarating life can lead people to avoid anything that feels like a duty.

A reliable sign of an org being hierarchical is the tolerance of dad jokes in the company.

A small % seek truth. Smaller % apply the sought truth. Even smaller % persist to see it through.

Absent minded people are easy to gaslight.

Academically bright doesn’t translate to being good at second order thinking or critical thinking unless the education system is designed to invoke these skills.

Academically bright doesn’t translate to being good at second order thinking or critical thinking unless the education system is designed to invoke these skills. These two skills are rarest skill in the world and usually found in abundance in evolved individuals.

Ageing is discomfort in trying new things and comfort in repeating old things.

AI has made all of us QA.

AI is an energy business. Using energy very efficiently to get a task done will make AI have similar impact to electricity.

AI is an energy business. Using energy very efficiently to get a task done will make AI have similar impact to electricity. If AI does become like the electric revolution, its impossible to imagine it remain in private ownership & soon become a state and geo political issue.

AI is turning devs from musicians to DJs.

AI race is an energy efficiency race. AI battles will fundamentally get the smartest brains to reduce cost and increase abundance of energy.

AI race is an energy efficiency race. AI battles will fundamentally get the smartest brains to reduce cost and increase abundance of energy. Abundant and cheap energy will unleash abundant wealth but will be distributed unevenly. Like it always has been.

AI will wildly accelerate those who have good judgement and are highly impatient. Specially if they can have access to capital.

AI won’t take over the world. Humans who are adept with AI will.

All profit pools in tech B2C across world are becoming some variants of hopium.

All sins have low CAC.

All successful people in all fields are usually much better at learning than others and don’t lose their ability to learn after some degree of success.

Anyone who is interested in history but struggles with predicting the future enjoys history for the stories, not for the lessons.

As a species we do well by getting as many people as possible to be more long term v/s short term. All social norms, religions and laws are tools that allow the species to be more long term.

As stories of people getting rich through dumb luck become more mainstream, more individuals will participate in risky schemes.

Autographed books maybe the least read books.

Be around excellence.

Before: You’re the average of the company you keep. Now: You’re the average of the content that influences you.

Being in company of competent people can create an illusion of being competent. But only reliable way to increase competence is solve increasingly hard problems of a wide range.

Building societies in India are perfect examples of Talebs minority rule. A small number of inflexible and intolerant folks often decide how the entire community operates. Being inflexible is a powerful flex.

Collectivist societies impress each other by having interesting content and stories. Individualistic societies impress each other by having materialistic achievements.

Commitment issues stems from presence of options.

Conjecture : data speed in a community is correlated to decline in birth rate.

Critical thinking is like a muscle. Muscles are hard to build as you age.

Developed world will AI their co-pilot. Developing world may have to become co-pilot to AI to ride this wave.

Disciplined people are more likely to be rigid in other aspects of life. Those who can combine discipline to execute with open mindedness to learn and change, achieve more.

Displacement happens from Pareto actions. Pareto actions can’t happen with busyness. Busyness is addictive.

Dunning Kruger is contagious.

Earning grows with skills. Skills grow with uncomfortable learning & experiences. Anyone’s earning is directly correlated to how often they update their brain like an app and not resist it.

easier to achieve your dreams when the bar is low.

Even the best athletes lose their magic without pressure and practice. Same is true for best talent at work. Excellence is a rent paid everyday. Not an asset that you own forever.

Evolved brains have very low birth rate. Nature finds a way to cleanse their genes.

Excellence in all sports is extremely hard. Prize money inmost sports is tiny. Same applies in business. Sports can be played for glory and medals. Business shouldn’t be.

Excellence is cultural and not something people can aspire to do unless their environment is seen pursing excellence too.

Feelings are a good signal to indicate that something is wrong. Feelings are a poor signal to determine exactly what is wrong or how to solve.

Focus is a privilege of deep markets.

Founders who get fit often think it’s a good idea to build startups aimed at making everyone fit. Usually a bad idea. Startups can be a catalyst for bad habits (like ordering dessert in 9 minutes), but can’t motivate people to stay away from desserts in the long run.

Fragile souls take refuge in group identities, hiding from the weight of standing as individuals.

Getting deeply trained in AI; irrespective of your profession is the new age vaccination.

Givers breed takers.

Growth is unlikely when the tendency to externalize blame is high.

Hating technology is like hating physics. Physics wins.

Highly creative people are usually absent-minded, as their brains spend most of the time connecting dots that seem to have no connection.

Humans when dealt insane rate of change around them will always prefer distraction over intention.

Hyper connected world via its social media is standardizing the concept of beauty. A disconnected world manifested multiple versions of beauty earlier.

I see aspiring entrepreneurs often wasting time consuming content, podcasts, reality TV instead of building or selling, where real learning happens. Vocabulary is growing; skills aren’t. Entrepreneurship is like swimming. You can’t learn swimming online.

Identities are the prison that provide comfort and often hamper growth.

If you do a business that makes a lot of money for the government you’ll always have their support.

If you want to see the future of consumption, look at what the rich are consuming today. If you want to see the future of technology, watch how the young are using it today.

In a post-AI world, the shelf lives of most businesses shrink unless they have the protection of some regulation, brand, or other non-tech moats.

In a society where respect is disconnected from competence, people will prioritize status over substance.

In chaotic times, people show barbell behavior: choosing extremes to regain their sense of control. With money: risky bets or ultra-safe options. In life: COVID made many either end relationships or fully commit.

In collectivist societies, thanking people isn’t as common as in individualistic ones as being helpful is seen as a given, not an exception.

In countries where stealing electricity is easier than stealing petrol, electric vehicles may become a huge hit.

In society that doesn’t value time, status giving products command highest gross margins.

In this rapidly changing world it’s impossible to decide what should children focus for their learning. But if they’re taught to become a learning machine and learn anything rapidly they’ll continue to thrive.

In this rapidly changing world it’s impossible to decide what should children focus for their learning. But if they’re taught to become a learning machine and learn anything rapidly they’ll...

Incompetent and insecure leaders constantly complexify things versus simplify them.

Internet has been the most powerful productivity booster and destroyer. Tech changes your life for better when you let it be your servant and not let it become your master.

It’s easy to predict someone’s future by seeing how they acknowledge and/or narrate their past failures.

It’s extremely rare to find someone who eats slowly and is overweight.

It’s hard for people to be long term in life when their being is shaped with constant short term gratifications.

It’s hard to make money selling delayed gratification when the world is interested in instant gratification.

It’s rare to see a nation with high per capita income not value time. It’s rare to see a nation with low per capita income value time.

It’s very easy to make money by selling the idea that money can’t buy happiness to people who aren’t good at making money.

Jumping to conclusions is energy efficient. Most people don’t like wasting energy on thinking. Most manipulation is helping brain finding conclusions that are efficient but incorrect.

Leadership is taking hard decisions. Followership however comes from being proven right with those decisions.

Many founders give a lot of their peak years trying to make their startup get to some PMF, scale or capital and often get stuck in sunk cost mindset and can’t give up.

Many parents believe that shielding their children from uncertainty is a hallmark of good parenting. This approach can unintentionally inhibit their children’s growth as development often arises...

Mocking is a sneaky way to acquire power. Reaction to mockery is a good indicator of someone’s ability to keep any power in the long run.

Most achievers struggled to fit in growing up and eventually became hyper independent and then built their own tribe.

Most authors crave authority.

Most creative people have a reliable ritual to get bored at will which makes their brain fire up and connect dots.

Most education focuses on becoming good at answering, but life rewards those who excel at questioning, which helps get closer to the truth.

Most people lost their sense of wonder by playing adult for a long time.

Most startups are destined to die. Even the funded ones. Startup success is mostly a miracle. And miracle doesn’t happen with team that’s looking for stability and dislike ambiguity.

Need for equality is need for power.

New income tax limits could cause big jump in Gen Z consumption spends.

No one feels like an adult, they just act.

None of us is as dumb as all of us. - anon

Old saying : if you’re not the dumbest in the room, you’re in the wrong room. Today’s reality : stuck in various chat groups that regress to a scary mean.

Only good use of AI so far has been on memes.

Over prescriptive environments hamper critical thinking and innovative mindset and make people dependent on guidance. True for children. True for adults. True for workplace. True for countries.

Overprotection stunts long-term thinking.

People choose pettiness as it requires no patience, grace, or vision. It offers fleeting satisfaction while eroding character. Class & magnanimity, however, demand restraint when provoked...

People often stop behaving like children only after having children. Many people delay having children to continue to behave like children.

People who get hyper obsessed about personal health are often perceived as self centered.

Pick the professor, not the class. Pick the boss, not the company. Pick the person, not the relationship. Pick the investor, not valuation. Pick the market, not the product. Pick the character, not the personality. Pick the skill, not the degree. Pick the war, not the weapon.

Playing a team sport or engaging in a fun group game often reveals more about someone’s cultural fit than a traditional interview process.

Pride in expertise is the fastest way to become outdated as the brain prevents beliefs to be reshaped.

Process is how mediocrity gets their power - anon

Rate of change in the world is accelerating immensely and almost exponentially. What an insanely exciting and scary time to be alive. Birth rate may not recover if the rate of change continues.

Respect for leadership is built on the frequency, recency, and complexity of the problems a leader effectively solves.

Respect usually comes to those who can resist short-term temptations and focus on the long term.

Short videos will kill long videos. Quick commerce will kill Slow commerce. Memes will kill articles. Chats will kill emails. AI tools will kill outsourcing.

Some people focus their outrage on specific causes to drive a change. Some jump on every trending topic with an intent to build a following. If you outrage easily, you're easy to manipulate.

Some skills are coachable. Some are transferred through osmosis. Some seem to be innate. Wonder if only non coachable jobs are safe now.

Startups are turbulent and need war time people. Peace time people are a liability to them.

Storytellers have both a boon and a curse. The boon is their ability to sway people with their stories. The curse is that they often get carried away by their own stories and lose touch with reality.

Storytellers have both a boon and a curse. The boon is their ability to sway people with their stories. The curse is that they often get carried away by their own stories and lose touch with...

Success is having more choices than others. Success often comes to those who have lesser choices than others.

Taking a stance is a good teacher only if you reflect back on it.

Talent density wins. In sports. In companies. In nations.

Talent is ability to conquer new levels of any game consistently more than others. Some games are finite. Some aren’t. Those who play many games often can use their remix skills and be creative due to superior ability to connect dots.

Tech startups are usually good at serving an existing motivation in hyper efficient manner. But sucks at creating a new motivation or reshaping an existing motivation.

Thanks @elonmusk for making us realize how little we are getting done with our time on this planet. More power to you.

The need to understand is like a muscle: if you don’t challenge it, it weakens over time. Start early, and you’ll build a strength that won’t easily fade.

The pursuit of excellence comes at a price. The biggest cost is solitude. Collectivist societies struggle with excellence because the price of solitude is hard for most to accept.

There are two types of people when it comes to gossip: super conductors and insulators. It’s easy to tell which type earns trust.

This probably is the most exciting and scary time to be alive in human history.

This year 20 over IPL will be filled with 10 mins commerce ads. Quick commerce is T20 of ECommerce.

Those who are easily affected or offended by trivial matters are often using them as a distraction from deeper fears or larger challenges in life.

Those who aren’t good at critical thinking will always find comfort in social identities.

Those who excessively discuss politics are usually driven by a desire for power, even though many of them possess none in their personal lives.

Those who have spent the last few months deeply immersed in AI tools are beginning to resemble people who have met God.

Those who pursue excellence will be mocked till they get awarded or recognized for it. Then everyone will claim familiarity or allegiance to them and bask in reflected glory.

Thought experiment: what happens if Doctors become 10x more productive using AI?

To truly predict the second-order impact of AI, we should look back at history and study how electricity reshaped society, rather than the more recent influence of the internet.

Today’s AI is like a 300 IQ child. Growing on both IQ and maturity rapidly with every single human acting as its parent.

Total GDP of the world changed completely post electricity. AI may make this even more vertical and fast.

Twitter(X) provides a great opportunity to be easily offended or become unoffendable.

Variety repels duty.

We are entering a pivotal time when many companies; historically driven by large-scale hiring to boost revenue may choose not to rely on increasing headcount for future growth.

We want what we cannot have. We don't want what we already have. If we get what we want, we wouldn’t want it anymore. Pursuit of happiness, thus maybe a disorder.

We want what we cannot have. We don't want what we already have. If we get what we want, we wouldn’t want it anymore. Pursuit of happiness, thus maybe a disorder. PS: Wish you a Happy New Year.

Wealth-sharing by Indian startups will set new standards, pushing employees across industries to seek equity over cash. This trend may also drive senior professionals in traditional companies to favor startups for potential wealth gains through ESOPs over cash stability.

Wealth-sharing by Indian startups will set new standards, pushing employees across industries to seek equity over cash. This trend may also drive senior professionals in traditional companies...

What all religions refer to as “sins” are often short-term human behaviors that bring immediate gratification but carry long-term consequences.

When a big wave comes there are 2 choices left. Ride it or get impacted by it. When frequency of waves goes up dramatically, only the ones who can adapt quickly will survive.

When big AI companies struggle to outperform each other, they’ll likely shift focus to safety, framing it as the biggest threat to distinguish themselves as more responsible than their competitors.

Worried about AI not having the need of work life balance.

Younger people find texts without emojis to be rude. Efficient communication is often perceived as rude too. Sensitive people find logical people to be rude often.

Youngest generation is being raised by GPT and short videos and not their parents.

Youth with strong work ethic and fast evolution get naturally picked and mentored by the skilled.

You’ll make wealth when you spend time with those who hate wasting time. You’ll find peace when you spend time with those who don’t care about time.

You’ll never see someone with large purpose find time to mock others.

“Success has many fathers; failure in an orphan.” Often multiple people try to do value add when something becomes successful to claim their share of fame.

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich.” - Charles P. Kindleberger